Resilience in the forest-wood value chain: interactions and considerations regarding measures for adaptions to climate change

Over the past five decades, Europe has experienced an increase in disruptive events that have affected its forests. In consequence, significant changes in the timber value chain are likely to occur in the future, with a tipping point towards a new system becoming increasingly probable. However, the specific characteristics of this new system are as yet unknown. This change could be shaped by increasing disturbances in the forest system, adaptation measures to climate change or increased forest management tasks. This paper presents two approaches to climate change adaptation: system-stabilising adaptations, which seek to remain within the existing system as far as possible, and system-transforming adaptations, which promote active adaptation to the changed structure of the value chain. Stabilising measures are suitable for the existing wood processing industry but could reach their limits with increasing disturbances. Transformative adaptation would be a risk for forest owners, who need to accurately assess future disturbances and market conditions and select the right tree species or wood types. The delayed market impact of changing forest growth conditions and tree species change allows the industry to delay adaptation measures and react more slowly, resulting in an uneven distribution of risk between forest owners and the wood processing industry. The risks, costs and management efforts associated with adaptation may lead to the abandonment of forest management practices, reducing the supply of roundwood to the processing industry. This could mean that the industry will be confronted with the effects sooner. In addition, wood shortages caused by disturbances and oversupply, which in some cases exceeds processing capacity, could become an increasing problem.